就讓我們直說美國目前的狀況：社會毫無變動性。

 Let's go ahead and call social mobility in American what it really is: social immobility.

即使是全美國學生最有機會在收入階級中往上爬一階的地區，大部分學生爬不上去。1980早期出生於貧窮家庭的孩子，大約只有8%的人如今成為收入階級中最高層。至於生長於中產階級的孩子中，也只有20%的人成為收入金字塔的高階。

Even in the parts of the country where students have the best shot at moving up the income ladder, the vast majority of them fail to make it past one rung. About 8 percent of kids born in the early 1980s who grew up in families in the poorest fifth managed to reach the top quintile of earners today. For those born smack dab in the middle of America's income distribution, there was just a 20 percent chance of making it to the top.

也就是說對大部份的人來說，他們出生在什麼樣經濟狀況的家庭，也就決定了當他們長大會成為哪種經濟狀況。這正是tremendous social mobility study 研究出的結果。結論非常簡單：你爸媽是誰非常重要！非常！

So for most children, where they're born on the economic ladder determines where they wind up. That's the conclusion of a tremendous social mobility study out today. Its bottom line is pretty simple. Your parents matter. A lot.

首先，你爸媽賺多少錢很重要！他們賺多少錢可以預測你會賺多少錢，也對你人生的道路有很大的影響。有錢父母的孩子比沒錢父母的孩子多了80%的機會會上大學。窮爸媽的小孩在還是青少年時期就成為父母親的比例也比有錢人家的小孩多了37%。

First, the income of your parents matters—not just as a strong predictor for your own income (given how weak social mobility is), but also as a nudge for your life path. The kids of rich parents are 80 percent more likely to attend college than those of low-income parents. Teenage daughters of the poorest parents are 37 percent more likely to have a child than girls born in the richest decile.

第二點，你爸媽的婚姻狀況如何很重要。一個孩子長大後的經濟狀況預測中，最大的影響因素就是他成長環境裡接觸到多少單親父母。但如果這孩子父母親保持婚姻狀況的話，就算他成長在許多單親父母親的區域，他比其他人更有機會長大後賺比較多的錢。研究指出“在所有影響小孩未來經濟狀況的變數中，單親家庭與否是最明顯的變數。“

Second, your parents' marriage (or living arrangement) matters. The single strongest predictor of a child's economic fortunes is the fraction of single parents in the area where she grew up. Children of married parents have a much better shot of getting ahead even if they're in areas where single parents are the norm. "The fraction of children living in single-parent households is the strongest correlate of upward income mobility among all the variables we explored," the researchers said.

但也不要過分強調這彼此之間的因果關係，有錢的單親父母的小孩通常會比窮困的雙親家庭的小孩有錢。婚姻狀況是貧窮惡性循環的一個重要因素。窮困的父母通常小孩長大也會賺比較少錢，也因為如此比較容易成為單親父母，循環下去他們的孩子也繼續過著貧窮的日子。

It's important not to overstate the causality here. Rich single parents tend to produce richer children than married couples living in poverty. Instead it's best to see marriages as a powerful centripetal force in the vicious cycle of poverty. Low-income parents tend to have children who grow up to be lower-income, who are in turn more likely to form single-parent households and raise children who follow this well-worn life path.

第三點，父母親重要在於他們會決定你住在哪裡，而機運也就此不同。從公立學校 大學 到同儕，到世代間交替狀況都大大不同。就像下面這張美國地圖顯示的，基本上整個東南部都很窮困，他們應該要搬遷到猶他州。（紅色：社會低流動 ; 顏色淡：社會高流動）

Third, parents matter because they decide where you live. And opportunities—from public schools, to local colleges, to peers, to intergenerational mobility—differs tremendously by area, as this heat map of the U.S. shows. Practically the entire southeast is horrible for poor children trying to get ahead. They should move to Utah. (Red = low mobility; light = higher mobility.)

事實上，像是鹽湖城或是舊金山的社會流動力與大部份的高流動歐洲國家相同。其他城市例如雅特蘭大、夏洛特、東南一帶的城市的社會流動力甚至是低於許多世界上的開發中國家。在夏洛特長大的孩子可以成為全國收入前20%的機會是4.4%；但在聖荷西市（近舊金山）的孩子機會則是12.9%。總的來說，這兩個數字都不算高，但另一方面來說，聖荷西市最窮的孩子還是比夏洛特的孩子有三倍的機會賺大錢。

In fact, cities like Salt Lake City and San Francisco are equal to the most mobile countries in Europe. Others, like Atlanta, Charlotte, and the Rust Belt, have mobility rates lower than practically every developed country in the world. The probability that a child reaches the top 20 percent of the national income distribution starting from the bottom 20 percent is 4.4 percent in Charlotte and 12.9 percent in San Jose. On the one hand, neither number is particularly high. On the other hand, San Jose's poorest children have 3X the chance of working their way into the top quartile as Charlotte's.

就如同David Wessel 在報告中總結的“雖然目前社會流動性還沒有更糟糕，但貧富不均狀況的確是越來越嚴重。也因為如此，生在好家庭就像中樂透一樣影響重大。“

As David Wessel summed up this report "Though mobility hasn’t worsened, inequality has. Winning the birth lottery matters more than ever."

ＪＬ碎念：

只能說貧富不均的現象越來越嚴重。富二代的負面新聞一個一個出來，真的所有的父母親都該好好想想孩子的教育～讓孩子從小要什麼有什麼對他的成長真的好嗎？

而我們行有餘力之時，也關心弱勢地區的孩童，讓他們多點機會，好嗎？

ps 為了我小孩的將來，我想的確需要好好經營婚姻關係的～：）

原文在這裡：

http://m.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/01/economists-your-parents-are-more-important-than-ever/283301/